| | 05 July, 2007
| | Joint Truman-Palestinian survey shows: 56% Palestinians believe in-fighting and lawlessness greatest threat, only 12% occupation | |
 | | A rally in Gaza in support of Hamas. (Photo: Ahmad Khateib/Flash 90) |
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A new public opinion poll shows that the majority of Palestinians (56%) believe that the most serious threat confronting Palestinians today is infighting and lawlessness, followed by poverty (21%), Israeli occupation and settlements (12%) and finally international boycott and sanctions (10%).
The most recent joint poll of Israeli and Palestinian public opinion conducted between June 12 and 20, 2007 by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, examined the two publics' support for a renewed cease fire agreement between Israel and the Palestinian factions and several ideas to promote it including the deployment of international forces on the borders of the Gaza Strip, and the security plan proposed by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Assessments of the Arab League (Saudi) Plan, the Israeli leadership's degrees of freedom to negotiate with various configurations of a Palestinian government and an Israeli-Syrian settlement were also examined.
Conflicted related and conflict resolution issues
Forty six percent of Israelis believe that another war can be expected this summer. 49% of Israelis believe that a ground operation in Gaza would promote such a war, while 46% believe that negotiations with Syria could prevent it.
Further findings of the survey reveal that 70% of Palestinians believe that the chances of the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are low or non existent. Twenty three percent meanwhile say they are not proud to be Palestinian.
Ceasefire agreement and the renewal of the political process
The findings also indicate a strong belief by both publics that armed confrontations between the two sides will continue. Only 31% of Palestinians believe it possible to reach a compromise settlement with the current Israeli leadership. While 60% of Israelis support negotiations between Israel and Abu Mazen over a final status settlement, only 42% of Israelis believe that it is possible to reach a compromise settlement between Olmert and Abu Mazen. In December 2006, 46% believed so.
Palestinian Domestic Balance of Power and attitudes towards democracy
While optimism in the leadership of the other side has dropped significantly since the last opinion poll in March 2007, the survey also demonstrates a lack of support by Palestinians for Abu Mazen. If new presidential elections were held today, 40% would not participate in these elections. Among those who would participate, 49% would vote for Abbas and 42% for Haniyeh. If the race was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, non participation would drop to 31%. Among those who would participate, 59% would vote for Barghouti and 35% for Haniyeh. In the Gaza Strip, Barghouti is favored against Haniyeh by 55% to 41%.
With the backdrop of the internal strife in the Gaza Strip, 54% of Palestinians and 85% of Israelis see democracy in the Palestinian Authority as a failed system that cannot be implemented in Palestine.
The Palestinian sample consisted of 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between June 14 and 20, 2007. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 598 adults interviewed by phone in Hebrew Arabic or Russian between June 12 and 19, 2007. The margin of error is 4%. The poll was planned and supervised by Dr. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University and Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).
The joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.
To view the full results of the survey, please click on the link below.
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Downloadable File: Trumansurveyjune2007.doc |
| Downloadable File: Full_SurveyJune2007.doc |
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